2023 Geopolitics TL;DR

November 29, 2023

I’ll be providing an attempted neutral analysis of the events leading up to the October 7th attack and the implications for an increased likelihood of WW3. My goal is to present the facts without assigning blame, based on referenced sources.

Two bubbling activities led to October 7th:

Israel Divisiveness

The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu (BiBi), has been pushing to consolidate power within the Knesset amidst ongoing, widespread civil protests. Israeli civilians were the most divided they had ever been. [1]

Israel-Saudi Relations

Normalization agreements between Israel and Saudi Arabia were getting closer to completion [2]. This would create among the most important global trade routes, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Mediterranean via Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. [3]

The Saudi Arabia Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) seeks to create a more democratic Arab world, less dependent on oil. [4] With 10% of the world's oil reserves and 15% of its gas, Iran’s economic leverage would be threatened.

Iran Terror Proxies

Now Iran has been funding terrorist proxies for decades [5]. From Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Syria’s ISIS and Palestine’s Hamas. These are radical islamic terror groups who are hell-bent on jihad (holy war) against all non believers of their Islamic sect. Several Hadiths (separate, widespread, teachings from the Quran) state that: “All sins are forgiven for those who die in the pursuit of jihad”. This includes Hamas.

Gaza Corruption

Gaza has been receiving billions annually from NATO, U.S., Iran and even Israel [6]. Pipes committed to laying down water infrastructure were repurposed into rockets [7]. Intricate tunnel networks the size of Manhattan were used to smuggle weapons into Gaza. This went on continuously since Israel removed all civilians in 2005 [8]. That’s 20 years of aid that was siphoned into military efforts and Hamas leadership’s pockets.

The top 3 leaders of Hamas are now worth a combined $11 billion [9]. It’s blatant corruption for what could’ve provided Gaza residents a better life.

Gaza has shot a cumulative ~8,749 rockets into Israel since 2000 [10], rockets that, again could’ve been pipes for the people of Gaza.

October 7th

Moving on to 10/7, Iran understood that Israel’s domestic turmoil put them in a vulnerable position and unleashed Hamas to seize the opportunity by carrying out the deadliest single day in Israeli history [10]. Hamas, again an extremist islam terror group motivated by jihad, indiscriminately slaughtered everyone they could find in the most barbaric way possible. No non-believers were spared: christians, bedouins, thais, germans, and yes jews.

Not once has terrorism against civilians benefited a cause. Regardless of the backstory (of which neither party is blameless), there is no world in which this act against humanity can be justified.

Israeli Military Response

The attack by Hamas warranted a retaliatory response from Israel’s IDF to neutralize their ability to commit the act again, which they’ve confirmed intention of [11]. The IDF sought to neutralize the extensive tunnel network and had to begin with an aerial bombardment, but not before dropping leaflets warning citizens [12]. The citizens of Gaza were forced to displace themselves while the IDF pursued neutralizing Hamas so they could not repeat this attack.

Gaza Refugees

The entire Arab world was outraged by the IDF’s retaliatory response, but none have accepted any refugees despite Israel not being the only bordering country. Hamas is rooted into the culture of Gaza. In what appears to be a Borat sketch, children in Gaza elementary schools are robbed of their education and instructed to kill [13]. This hate runs deep and impacted every Arab nation that took them in:

  • Jordan 1970: Refugees attempted to assassinate the king, called Black September [14]

  • Lebanon 1975-1990: PLO (another Palestinian faction) incited a civil war [15]

  • Syria 2011: Hamas supported the Syrian government opposition, beginning the Syrian Civil War [16]

These countries (amongst others) are reluctant to accept Gaza refugees because of their fear of further insurrection amongst their already unstable nations.

Forcing the focus on Israel (and the west) not only distracts their citizens from their internal struggles but it provides an effective scapegoat. This has always been a proven way to create nationalistic cohesion.

Western Polarization

Our institutions have instructed students to dismantle oppression. Whenever there’s a perceived imbalance of power, it’s their imperative to equalize the outcome. This encourages a reductionist “oppressed vs oppressor” world view that fails to account for nuance. Coupled with the popularity of short form content causes a disproportionate volume of misguided #freePalestine posts. [17]

The balance of power is in Israel’s favor, and thus they are the oppressor. As the hashtag gains momentum, creators are encouraged to post more, such is the social media cycle. Now misinformation certainly isn’t new, but the scale of it certainly is.

The Bigger Picture

All of this creates significant distraction for what are several looming threats to humanity:

  • Russian Restoration of Soviet Union: The U.S. and NATO has been a majority funder of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s series of conquests [18].

  • China’s “One China” Mission: As they continue to suppress the Uyghurs, Hong Kong and Tibet, they become emboldened to take over Taiwan. Combined with their Belt and Road initiative [19], owning the most advanced chip manufacturer in the world would allow them to monopolize the entire chip production industry, which the entire technology industry relies on. This would also help them prevent what is predicted to be their worst economic crisis in history [20].

  • Iran’s Nuclear Strategy: The Islamic Republic of Iran Army is hell-bent on projecting power to expand Iran’s economic leverage amidst dwindling global oil and natural gas demands. Allowing them to construct nuclear warheads while they fund rogue terrorist proxies would be disastrous.

These three unlikely allies have conquest in mind and thus are threats to global stability. They, alongside much of the middle east and Africa have grown disillusioned by western policies.

The Need for Cohesion

There’s a lesson in 10/7: Your enemies will attack when you’re at your weakest. One can make the argument that the western world is in its’ most polarized point in modern history:

  • The far left seems to be growing, as genocidal chants like ”from the river to the sea” [21] become more mainstream.

  • The far right is growing as countries elect nationalist presidents like Argentina, Netherlands and maybe even a re-election of Trump.

Our populace is well-intentioned but pampered, we don’t know struggle like our enemies do. Our enemies are united by their grittiness and their economies are growing rapidly.

Our present and future leaders are forming opinions from 30 second outrage videos, fueling our enemies’ goals.

What role are you playing in their goals? Global cohesion is needed now more than ever.

[9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel#:~:text=From the outbreak of the,Operation Summer Rains (2006)%2C

[13]

[15] https://www.britannica.com/summary/Lebanese-Civil-War#:~:text=Lebanese Civil War%2C (1975–,Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

[17]

[18] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-much-aid-the-u-s-has-sent-to-ukraine-in-6-charts#:~:text=Since the war began%2C the,Economy%2C a German research institute.

[20] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/business/china-economy-confidence.html#:~:text=What to Know%3A China's economy,has shaken the country's economy.